With the exception of a minor whipsaw, Bitcoin’s price effectively failed to react to the softest CPI print since 2021. The dropping Bitcoin dominance and Coinbase premium suggest it might be time for BTC price to cool off. Investors can expect consolidation or a correction in the coming weeks.
However, the upcoming FOMC meeting in September, coupled with the Fed’s decision to cut rates after a soft CPI print, will play an important role in establishing Bitcoin’s directional bias.
Bitcoin Dominance & Coinbase Premium Drops
Bitcoin dominance, which tracks the market cap of BTC relative to the total crypto market cap, has dropped roughly 5% from 65.38% to 61.96%. This pullback indicates that the profit-taking and capital rotation are underway as Bitcoin (BTC) is down 2% from Monday’s high of $105.8k, leaving BTC to trade at $103.6k. It makes sense, considering BTC price is just 3.91% away from reaching an all-time high on Monday, while altcoins are still 60% to 80% down from their ATHs.
As noted above, the chances of BTC price ranging now are higher than ever. Supporting this outlook is the decline in Coinbase premium, which clearly illustrates the lack of demand from US investors. A higher demand from US investors often pushes Bitcoin’s value higher on Coinbase compared to another popular exchange, Binance.
Startegy (formerly MicroStrategy) and other well-known institutions in the US use Coinabse to buy BTCs. Hence, the buying pressure can sometimes be spotted in the orderbooks, giving traders an edge. A drop in Coinbase premium indicates that this demand is drying up.
What’s Next for BTC Price?
The US CPI came in at 2.3%, lower than the forecast of 2.4%, making it the softest inflation reading since 2021. Despite this slightly bullish announcement, the BTC price continued to slide lower. As explained above, profit-taking and capital rotation induced a drop in Bitcoin dominance and a declining Coinbase premium, all of which dampened the optimism.
With a low CPI print, the Federal Reserve should be incentivized to cut the target rate by at least 25 basis points. At least many investors are anticipating a rate cut in the next meeting. However, Jim Bianco of Bianco Research notes that the chances of a Fed cut are reducing with every major economic release since May 1, including the FOMC meeting. Bianco added,
“The next FOMC meeting with a better than 50% probability of a cut is now September 17 (currently 60%). Less than two weeks ago, this probability was more than 100%. If this trend holds, the next cut will be pushed out to December soon.
Will the Fed cut rates? It is uncertain. However, the CME Fed Watch Tool showcases a 51.4% odds of a 25 bps rate cut in September. As noted by Bianco, this number could shrink a lot in the coming days, which does not help with Bitcoin price forecasting.
Key Levels to Watch
With so much uncertainity in the medium-term timeframe, let’s focus on what Bitcoin price has to say for this week.
The daily chart shows BTC price is teetering above a key value area, extending from $102.6k to $93.1k. This zone is where 70% of the volume was traded between November 2024 and February 2025. Based on the Auction Market Theory principles, an acceptance below $102.6k could lead to a rotation toward the value area’s lower limit at $93.1k.
Hence, the short-term level to watch is $102.6k, below which BTC price could trigger a steep correction.
On the flip side, if buyers show strength around $102.6k, Bitcoin price could bounce here, showcasing strength and continuation of the uptrend. In such a case, BTC could revisit ATH at $109k and potentially push past it to reach the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level at $118.7k, followed by the 261.8% Fib level at $135.5k. Both of these outlooks are extremely bullish, hence investors need to exercise caution.
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